Universitatea Cluj 6–1 Dacia Unirea Braila

Universitatea Cluj

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dacia Unirea Braila

10/13/2018

Liga II · Round 12Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Universitatea Cluj82%

×Draw12%

Dacia Unirea Braila7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchDacia Unirea Braila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

0.76

Universitatea Cluj

3.02

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.76

Universitatea Cluj creates 297% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

0.68

0.83

allows per match

4.21

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.83

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.68

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

0.83

Dacia Unirea Braila

4.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

93%

Universitatea Cluj or Dacia Unirea Braila

88%

Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila

18%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

62%

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

95%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

80%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

57%

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals

53%

Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals

18%

Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

93%

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 3.02

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

82%

level

12%

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more

7%

Universitatea Cluj at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff