Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universitatea Cluj vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
9/3/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 5Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Universitatea Cluj65%
×Draw20%
CS Luceafarul Oradea14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
2.04
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.83

Universitatea Cluj creates 146% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
86%
Universitatea Cluj or CS Luceafarul Oradea
80%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
35%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
41%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
87%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
60%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
33%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
56%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
20%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
82%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.04

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
65%
level
20%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
14%

Universitatea Cluj at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universitatea Cluj 2 – 0 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Universitatea Cluj beat CS Luceafarul Oradea 2-0 in Liga II on September 3, 2018.

The match was played at Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca).