Universitatea Cluj 0–0 CS Balotesti: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CS Balotesti

11/25/2018

Liga II · Round 18Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Universitatea Cluj73%

×Draw17%

CS Balotesti10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchCS Balotesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

0.78

Universitatea Cluj

2.39

CS Balotesti

0.78

Universitatea Cluj creates 206% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

0.74

0.83

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.83

CS Balotesti

0.74

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

0.83

CS Balotesti

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

CS Balotesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

90%

Universitatea Cluj or CS Balotesti

83%

Draw or CS Balotesti

27%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

50%

CS Balotesti wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

91%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

69%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

42%

CS Balotesti 1+ goals

54%

CS Balotesti 2+ goals

18%

CS Balotesti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

87%

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.39

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

73%

level

17%

CS Balotesti scores more

10%

Universitatea Cluj at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff