Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Corona Braşov

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corona Braşov

11/8/2021

Liga II · Round 13Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Universitatea Cluj57%

×Draw26%

Corona Braşov17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchCorona Braşov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.70

Universitatea Cluj

1.52

Corona Braşov

0.70

Universitatea Cluj creates 117% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 9 away

1.83

creates per match

0.56

0.83

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.83

Corona Braşov

0.56

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

0.83

Corona Braşov

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Corona Braşov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Corona Braşov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

83%

Universitatea Cluj or Corona Braşov

74%

Draw or Corona Braşov

43%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

30%

Corona Braşov wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

78%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

45%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

20%

Corona Braşov 1+ goals

50%

Corona Braşov 2+ goals

16%

Corona Braşov 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

77%

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Corona Braşov away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Corona Braşov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Corona Braşov attack 0.56 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

57%

level

26%

Corona Braşov scores more

17%

Universitatea Cluj at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff