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Universitatea Alexandria W vs SSU Poli Timişoara W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
1 – 4
SSU Poli Timişoara W
SSU Poli Timişoara W
5/8/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Comunal Plosca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W41%
×Draw20%
SSU Poli Timişoara W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.21
SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.39

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.67

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

SSU Poli Timişoara W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
61%
Universitatea Alexandria W or SSU Poli Timişoara W
80%
Draw or SSU Poli Timişoara W
59%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
23%
SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
89%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
65%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
38%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals
88%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals
63%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
51%
SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 2.39 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
41%
level
20%
SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more
39%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Alexandria W vs SSU Poli Timişoara W

SSU Poli Timişoara W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 4-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Plosca in Plosca.