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Universitatea Alexandria W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
0 – 3
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
11/11/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Comunal Buzescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W37%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.92
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 11 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
58%
Universitatea Alexandria W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
79%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
63%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
85%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
57%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
30%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
87%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
61%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
47%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.92

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
37%
level
21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
42%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Alexandria W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Buzescu in Buzescu.