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Universitatea Alexandria W vs FF Baia Mare W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
1 – 0
FF Baia Mare W
FF Baia Mare W
5/9/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Comunal Buzescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W67%
×Draw16%
FF Baia Mare W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
3.17
FF Baia Mare W
1.59

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
FF Baia Mare W
1.26

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
FF Baia Mare W
3.58

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
83%
Universitatea Alexandria W or FF Baia Mare W
84%
Draw or FF Baia Mare W
33%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
48%
FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
96%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
82%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
60%
FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals
80%
FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals
47%
FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
80%
FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.17

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
67%
level
16%
FF Baia Mare W scores more
17%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Alexandria W vs FF Baia Mare W

Universitatea Alexandria W beat FF Baia Mare W 1-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Buzescu in Buzescu.