Universitatea Alexandria W 1–2 Carmen București W

Universitatea Alexandria W

FT

1 – 2

Carmen București W

10/3/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Comunal Buzescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W48%

×Draw19%

Carmen București W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Alexandria WExpected goals in this matchCarmen București W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

2.13

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.56

Carmen București W

2.13

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 19 away

2.75

creates per match

2.32

1.93

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.75

Carmen București W

2.32

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W

1.93

Carmen București W

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Carmen București W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Carmen București W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw

67%

Universitatea Alexandria W or Carmen București W

81%

Draw or Carmen București W

52%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+

29%

Carmen București W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals

92%

Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals

72%

Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals

46%

Carmen București W 1+ goals

88%

Carmen București W 2+ goals

63%

Carmen București W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)

59%

Carmen București W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Carmen București W away — creates 2.32, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Carmen București W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.56

Carmen București W attack 2.32 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more

48%

level

19%

Carmen București W scores more

33%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff