Universitario 1–0 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

G. Costa 90+3'

8/5/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universitario58%

×Draw25%

UTC Cajamarca17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.72

Universitario

1.57

UTC Cajamarca

0.72

Universitario creates 118% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.72

creates per match

0.85

0.59

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Universitario

1.72

UTC Cajamarca

0.85

allows per match

Universitario

0.59

UTC Cajamarca

1.43

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Universitario-0.05on par

UTC Cajamarca-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

83%

Universitario or UTC Cajamarca

75%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

42%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

31%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

79%

Universitario 2+ goals

46%

Universitario 3+ goals

21%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

51%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

16%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

77%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.59 · 6 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.43 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.72 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.85 + Universitario defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Universitario scores more

58%

level

25%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

17%

Universitario at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

W. Riveros

Universitario · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Rodrigo Ureña

46'

C. Olivares← É. Flores

50'

Neil Marcos

58'

Nelson Cabanillas

60'

Jonathan Segura

61'

H. Calcaterra← J. Concha

61'

S. Portocarrero← N. Cabanillas

66'

G. Costa← M. Pérez

76'

Á. Ojeda← Á. Romero

81'

H. Ancajima← R. Ureña

87'

87'

88'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioUTC

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots8

0.81Expected Goals (xG)0.88

6Corners2

16Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots8

5On Target2

12Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

440Total Passes258

341Accurate Passes172

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Primera División: Universitario 1–0 UTC Cajamarca

Universitario beat UTC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on August 5, 2024.

Goals: G. Costa (90+3').

Universitario controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.

Universitario vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Universitario 1–0 UTC Cajamarca