Universitario 1–6 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

UTC Cajamarca

11/10/2020

Primera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universitario57%

×Draw25%

UTC Cajamarca17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.74

Universitario

1.58

UTC Cajamarca

0.74

Universitario creates 114% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.72

creates per match

0.89

0.59

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Universitario

1.72

UTC Cajamarca

0.89

allows per match

Universitario

0.59

UTC Cajamarca

1.44

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Universitario-0.05on par

UTC Cajamarca-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

83%

Universitario or UTC Cajamarca

75%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

43%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

31%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

79%

Universitario 2+ goals

47%

Universitario 3+ goals

21%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

52%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

17%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

77%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.59 · 6 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.72 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Universitario defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Universitario scores more

57%

level

25%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

17%

Universitario at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff