Universitario 2–0 Sport Rosario: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Rosario

10/24/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Universitario64%

×Draw21%

Sport Rosario15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchSport Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.83

Universitario

1.99

Sport Rosario

0.83

Universitario creates 140% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 22 away

1.83

creates per match

0.82

0.84

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Universitario

1.83

Sport Rosario

0.82

allows per match

Universitario

0.84

Sport Rosario

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Sport Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

85%

Universitario or Sport Rosario

79%

Draw or Sport Rosario

36%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

39%

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

86%

Universitario 2+ goals

59%

Universitario 3+ goals

32%

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

56%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

20%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

81%

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.83 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Universitario scores more

64%

level

21%

Sport Rosario scores more

15%

Universitario at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff