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Universitario vs FC Cajamarca — Primera División 2026

Universitario
Universitario
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
L. Alzugaray 66'
3/1/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Universitario61%
×Draw23%
FC Cajamarca16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.77
FC Cajamarca
0.78

Universitario creates 127% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 9 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.86
FC Cajamarca
0.78

allows per match

Universitario
0.77
FC Cajamarca
1.67

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
FC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

FC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
84%
Universitario or FC Cajamarca
77%
Draw or FC Cajamarca
39%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
35%
FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
83%
Universitario 2+ goals
53%
Universitario 3+ goals
26%
FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
54%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
18%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
79%
FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.77 · 138 matches

FC Cajamarca away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.86 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Cajamarca attack 0.78 + Universitario defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Universitario scores more
61%
level
23%
FC Cajamarca scores more
16%

Universitario at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
W. RiverosUniversitarioUniversitario · D
7.6

Match Events

59'
H. Fertoli← M. Perez Guedes
63'
C. Meza← B. Palacios
66'
L. Alzugaray
74'
C. Gomez← J. Gallardo
75'
E. Flores← L. Alzugaray
75'
J. Betancourt← J. G. Orejuela
76'
Miguel Silveira← J. Concha
76'
P. Reyna← A. Santamaria
85'
J. Rivera← A. Valera
85'
M. Arrasco← T. Andrade

Possession

Universitario: 62FC: 3862%Universitario

Shots

Universitario: 13FC: 713Universitario

Pass accuracy

Universitario: 82FC: 7054%Universitario

Statistics

UniversitarioFC
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots7
5Corners2
5Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots7
1On Target3
9Off Target1
3Blocked3
8Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
493Total Passes306
403Accurate Passes213
82%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
5Fouls9
3Offsides1

Primera División: Universitario 1–0 FC Cajamarca

Universitario beat FC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on March 1, 2026.

Goals: L. Alzugaray (66').

Universitario controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.