Universitario 4–2 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Club Nacional

J. Carabali 90'

L. Alzugaray 81'

A. Valera 46'

C. Fara 40'

M. Silvera 71'

M. Gomez 14' (pen)

4/30/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Universitario43%

×Draw24%

Club Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.40

Universitario

1.62

Club Nacional

1.40

Universitario creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

1.38

1.43

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Universitario

0.86

Club Nacional

1.38

allows per match

Universitario

1.43

Club Nacional

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

67%

Universitario or Club Nacional

76%

Draw or Club Nacional

57%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

22%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

80%

Universitario 2+ goals

48%

Universitario 3+ goals

22%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

75%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

41%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

56%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 0.86 + Club Nacional defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.62

Club Nacional attack 1.38 + Universitario defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Universitario scores more

43%

level

24%

Club Nacional scores more

33%

Universitario at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Carabali

Universitario · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

M. GomezPenalty

18'

21'

35'

35'

40'

43'

46'

62'

63'

M. Silvera← B. Barcia

63'

A. dos Santos← N. Lodeiro

66'

J. Castillo← J. Murrugarra

69'

L. Alzugaray← E. Flores

71'

M. Silvera

75'

L. Mejia

80'

H. Fertoli← M. Perez Guedes

80'

J. Rivera← A. Valera

81'

L. Alzugaray

82'

L. Alzugaray

83'

E. Ancheta← N. Rodriguez

83'

R. Martinez← T. Veron

86'

P. Nunez← L. Boggio

88'

J. Castillo

90'

J. Carabali↳ H. Fertoli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioClub

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots11

2.06Expected Goals (xG)1.41

7Corners5

16Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots11

9On Target6

4Off Target3

2Blocked2

10Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

378Total Passes296

298Accurate Passes223

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

-0.35Goals Prevented-0.35

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0