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Universitario vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Universitario
Universitario
PST
22:00
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
8/1/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Universitario61%
×Draw22%
Carlos Stein17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.87
Carlos Stein
0.88

Universitario creates 113% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 32 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.83
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Universitario
0.84
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
83%
Universitario or Carlos Stein
78%
Draw or Carlos Stein
39%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
36%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
85%
Universitario 2+ goals
56%
Universitario 3+ goals
29%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
59%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
22%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
78%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.83 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.87

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Universitario scores more
61%
level
22%
Carlos Stein scores more
17%

Universitario at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universitario face Carlos Stein (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Universitario hosting Carlos Stein. Match starts August 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Universitario host Carlos Stein at Estadio Monumental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.