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Carlos Stein vs Universitario — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
2/19/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio César Flores Marigorda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein29%
×Draw26%
Universitario45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.11
Universitario
1.47

Universitario creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 147 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Universitario
1.26

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Universitario
1.02

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
55%
Carlos Stein or Universitario
74%
Draw or Universitario
71%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
11%
Universitario wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
67%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
30%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
10%
Universitario 1+ goals
77%
Universitario 2+ goals
43%
Universitario 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
39%
Universitario (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Universitario attack 1.26 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
29%
level
26%
Universitario scores more
45%

Universitario at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Universitario

Carlos Stein beat Universitario 2-1 in Primera División on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio César Flores Marigorda in Lambayeque.