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Universitario vs Carlos A. Mannucci — Primera División 2026

Universitario
Universitario
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
8/1/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Universitario54%
×Draw24%
Carlos A. Mannucci22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.72
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.00

Universitario creates 72% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 95 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.84
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.16

allows per match

Universitario
0.84
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.59

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
78%
Universitario or Carlos A. Mannucci
76%
Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci
46%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
30%
Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
82%
Universitario 2+ goals
51%
Universitario 3+ goals
25%
Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
63%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
26%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
71%
Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.84 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.16 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitario scores more
54%
level
24%
Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
22%

Universitario at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario vs Carlos A. Mannucci

Universitario beat Carlos A. Mannucci 3-0 in Primera División on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.