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Universitario vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026

Universitario
Universitario
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
2/4/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Universitario55%
×Draw25%
Atletico Grau20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.60
Atletico Grau
0.85

Universitario creates 88% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 94 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.83
Atletico Grau
0.86

allows per match

Universitario
0.84
Atletico Grau
1.38

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
80%
Universitario or Atletico Grau
75%
Draw or Atletico Grau
45%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
29%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
80%
Universitario 2+ goals
47%
Universitario 3+ goals
22%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
57%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
21%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
73%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.83 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universitario scores more
55%
level
25%
Atletico Grau scores more
20%

Universitario at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario vs Atletico Grau

Universitario beat Atletico Grau 1-0 in Primera División on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.