Atletico Grau 1–1 Universitario: Result & Stats

Atletico Grau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Universitario

M. da Luz 44'

Á. Valera 37'

7/21/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Atletico Grau39%

×Draw28%

Universitario33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.09

Atletico Grau

1.22

Universitario

1.09

Atletico Grau creates 12% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 94 away

1.57

creates per match

1.26

0.92

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Atletico Grau

1.57

Universitario

1.26

allows per match

Atletico Grau

0.92

Universitario

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

67%

Atletico Grau or Universitario

72%

Draw or Universitario

61%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

17%

Universitario wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

12%

Universitario 1+ goals

66%

Universitario 2+ goals

30%

Universitario 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

54%

Universitario (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 79 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.87 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.57 + Universitario defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Universitario attack 1.26 + Atletico Grau defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

39%

level

28%

Universitario scores more

33%

Atletico Grau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Britos

Universitario · G

7.9

Match Events

37'

44'

47'

53'

65'

S. Portocarrero← N. Cabanillas

65'

H. Calcaterra← J. Concha

69'

J. Rivera← Á. Valera

78'

F. Oncoy← N. Bandiera

84'

J. Murrugarra← M. Pérez

84'

C. Olivares← É. Flores

89'

R. Sandoval← M. da Luz

90+6'

Aldo Corzo

90+5'

Horacio Calcaterra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoUniversitario

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots16

0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.71

4Corners3

16Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target6

6Off Target7

3Blocked3

11Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

320Total Passes307

220Accurate Passes183

69%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1