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Universitario vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Universitario
Universitario
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
4/5/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universitario48%
×Draw29%
Alianza Lima23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.27
Alianza Lima
0.79

Universitario creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.72
Alianza Lima
1.00

allows per match

Universitario
0.59
Alianza Lima
0.82

finishing

Universitario-0.05on par
Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
77%
Universitario or Alianza Lima
71%
Draw or Alianza Lima
52%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
22%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
72%
Universitario 2+ goals
36%
Universitario 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
55%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
19%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
67%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.59 · 6 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.72 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + Universitario defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universitario scores more
48%
level
29%
Alianza Lima scores more
23%

Universitario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Universitario 1–0 Alianza Lima

Universitario beat Alianza Lima 1-0 in Primera División on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.