Universitario de Vinto 0–1 The Strongest

Universitario de Vinto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

The Strongest

J. Godoy 6'

12/4/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto35%

×Draw25%

The Strongest40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitario de VintoExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Universitario de Vinto

1.33

The Strongest

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 134 away

1.36

creates per match

1.58

1.29

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.36

The Strongest

1.58

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.29

The Strongest

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw

60%

Universitario de Vinto or The Strongest

75%

Draw or The Strongest

65%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

15%

The Strongest wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

74%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

38%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

15%

The Strongest 1+ goals

76%

The Strongest 2+ goals

42%

The Strongest 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

47%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.31 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + The Strongest defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

The Strongest attack 1.58 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more

35%

level

25%

The Strongest scores more

40%

The Strongest at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Amoroso

The Strongest · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

14'

42'

45+4'

45+2'

54'

57'

62'

64'

64'

71'

71'

F. Mejia← D. A. Camacho Almanza

73'

G. Sotomayor← J. Garcia

75'

Luis Banegas

76'

Jose Abrego

79'

Jorge Eduardo Lovera

82'

M. Chiatti← F. Supayabe

82'

P. Espiritu← S. Melgar

83'

90'

90'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioThe

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots13

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.97

4Corners6

18Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target3

7Off Target4

1Blocked6

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

393Total Passes354

311Accurate Passes287

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls13

6Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1