Universitario de Vinto 2–1 Royal Pari

Universitario de Vinto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Royal Pari

5/13/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto47%

×Draw24%

Royal Pari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitario de VintoExpected goals in this matchRoyal Pari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

Universitario de Vinto

1.65

Royal Pari

1.23

Universitario de Vinto creates 34% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 112 away

1.36

creates per match

1.17

1.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.36

Royal Pari

1.17

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.29

Royal Pari

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Royal Pari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw

71%

Universitario de Vinto or Royal Pari

76%

Draw or Royal Pari

53%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

25%

Royal Pari wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

81%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

49%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

23%

Royal Pari 1+ goals

71%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

35%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

62%

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Royal Pari defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Royal Pari attack 1.17 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more

47%

level

24%

Royal Pari scores more

29%

Universitario de Vinto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff