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Universitario de Vinto vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
8/4/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 22Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Universitario de Vinto61%
×Draw21%
Libertad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario de Vinto
2.10
Libertad
1.06

Universitario de Vinto creates 98% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.36
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.29
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw
82%
Universitario de Vinto or Libertad
79%
Draw or Libertad
39%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
38%
Libertad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
88%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
62%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
35%
Libertad 1+ goals
65%
Libertad 2+ goals
29%
Libertad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
77%
Libertad (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.10

Libertad attack 0.83 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more
61%
level
21%
Libertad scores more
18%

Universitario de Vinto at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario de Vinto vs Libertad

Universitario de Vinto and Libertad drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.