Universitario de Vinto 1–1 Blooming: Result & Stats

Universitario de Vinto

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blooming

M. Enoumba 53' (OG)

A. Vasquez 11'

5/5/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Sudamericano Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto53%

×Draw23%

Blooming24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitario de VintoExpected goals in this matchBlooming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.14

Universitario de Vinto

1.83

Blooming

1.14

Universitario de Vinto creates 61% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 131 away

1.36

creates per match

0.99

1.29

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.36

Blooming

0.99

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.29

Blooming

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Blooming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw

76%

Universitario de Vinto or Blooming

77%

Draw or Blooming

47%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

30%

Blooming wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

84%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

54%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

28%

Blooming 1+ goals

68%

Blooming 2+ goals

32%

Blooming 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

69%

Blooming (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Blooming away — creates 0.99, concedes 2.31 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Blooming defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.83

Blooming attack 0.99 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more

53%

level

23%

Blooming scores more

24%

Universitario de Vinto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

H. Rodriguez

Universitario de Vinto · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

A. Vasquez↳ A. Oliveros

13'

Hugo Dorrego

34'

Guilder Cuellar

45+2'

Julio Vila

46'

J. Carrasco← D. Gimenez

46'

Esdras Mendoza← M. Villarroel

53'

M. EnoumbaOwn goal

58'

J. Chura← A. Vasquez

58'

G. Centella← A. Oliveros

71'

P. Alcocer← H. Dorrego

80'

J. Valencia← J. Calicho

82'

Mario Fernández Cuadiay

85'

Agustin Jara

87'

J. S. Mercado Galvez← C. Menacho

89'

Jose Pinto← G. Cuellar

89'

M. Gomez← H. Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioBlooming

Overview

63%Possession37%

25Total Shots11

14Corners2

11Fouls2

Shots

25Total Shots11

9On Target1

7Off Target8

9Blocked2

12Inside Box8

13Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

513Total Passes308

431Accurate Passes219

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls2

4Yellow Cards1

6Offsides1