Universitario de Vinto 0–1 Atlético Palmaflor

Universitario de Vinto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Palmaflor

5/7/2022

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Universitario de Vinto51%

×Draw24%

Atlético Palmaflor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitario de VintoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Palmaflor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.13

Universitario de Vinto

1.71

Atlético Palmaflor

1.13

Universitario de Vinto creates 51% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

1.36

creates per match

0.97

1.29

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.36

Atlético Palmaflor

0.97

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.29

Atlético Palmaflor

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw

75%

Universitario de Vinto or Atlético Palmaflor

76%

Draw or Atlético Palmaflor

49%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

27%

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

82%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

51%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

31%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

67%

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more

51%

level

24%

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

25%

Universitario de Vinto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff