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Universidade de Macau vs Shao Jiang — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
6/29/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Championship Round - 5Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Universidade de Macau10%
×Draw12%
Shao Jiang78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
1.20
Shao Jiang
3.40

Shao Jiang creates 183% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Shao Jiang
4.31

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Shao Jiang
0.85

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Shao Jiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
22%
Universidade de Macau or Shao Jiang
88%
Draw or Shao Jiang
90%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
4%
Shao Jiang wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
70%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
34%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
12%
Shao Jiang 1+ goals
96%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
84%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
11%
Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Shao Jiang away — creates 4.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Shao Jiang defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Shao Jiang attack 4.31 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
10%
level
12%
Shao Jiang scores more
78%

Shao Jiang at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Universidade de Macau 3–4 Shao Jiang

Shao Jiang beat Universidade de Macau 4-3 in Primeira Divisão on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.