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Universidade de Macau vs Hang Sai — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Hang Sai
Hang Sai
7/5/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Universidade de Macau46%
×Draw19%
Hang Sai34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
2.52
Hang Sai
2.17

Universidade de Macau creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Hang Sai
1.84

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Hang Sai
3.50

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Hang Sai+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Hang Sai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
66%
Universidade de Macau or Hang Sai
81%
Draw or Hang Sai
54%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
28%
Hang Sai wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
92%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
71%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
45%
Hang Sai 1+ goals
89%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
64%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
57%
Hang Sai (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Hang Sai away — creates 1.84, concedes 3.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Hang Sai defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hang Sai attack 1.84 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
46%
level
19%
Hang Sai scores more
34%

Universidade de Macau at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Universidade de Macau 1–7 Hang Sai

Hang Sai beat Universidade de Macau 7-1 in Primeira Divisão on July 5, 2026.