Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universidad O&M vs Salcedo — Liga Mayor 2025

Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Salcedo
Salcedo
J. Trincado 10'
D. Jamesley 73', 14'
J. Angulo 30'
4/9/2026Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Winners Stage - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Universidad O&M30%
×Draw23%
Salcedo47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad O&M
1.46
Salcedo
1.86

Salcedo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Universidad O&M
1.33
Salcedo
1.94

allows per match

Universidad O&M
1.78
Salcedo
1.59

finishing

Universidad O&M+0.00on par
Salcedo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad O&M ↓

Salcedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Universidad O&M or draw
53%
Universidad O&M or Salcedo
77%
Draw or Salcedo
70%

Winning margin

Universidad O&M wins by 2+
14%
Salcedo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Universidad O&M 1+ goals
77%
Universidad O&M 2+ goals
43%
Universidad O&M 3+ goals
18%
Salcedo 1+ goals
84%
Salcedo 2+ goals
55%
Salcedo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)
39%
Salcedo (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad O&M at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Salcedo away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad O&M attack 1.33 + Salcedo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Salcedo attack 1.94 + Universidad O&M defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universidad O&M scores more
30%
level
23%
Salcedo scores more
47%

Salcedo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salcedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. Trincado
14'
D. Jamesley
30'
J. Angulo
73'
D. Jamesley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Universidad O&M 1–3 Salcedo

Salcedo beat Universidad O&M 3-1 in Liga Mayor on April 9, 2026.

Goals: J. Trincado (10'), D. Jamesley (14', 73'), J. Angulo (30').