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Universidad O&M vs Moca — Liga Mayor 2025

Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moca
Moca
2/7/2026Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Winners Stage - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universidad O&M30%
×Draw26%
Moca44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad O&M
1.17
Moca
1.46

Moca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Universidad O&M
1.33
Moca
1.00

allows per match

Universidad O&M
1.93
Moca
1.00

finishing

Universidad O&M+0.00on par
Moca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad O&M ↓

Moca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Universidad O&M or draw
56%
Universidad O&M or Moca
74%
Draw or Moca
70%

Winning margin

Universidad O&M wins by 2+
12%
Moca wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Universidad O&M 1+ goals
69%
Universidad O&M 2+ goals
33%
Universidad O&M 3+ goals
11%
Moca 1+ goals
77%
Moca 2+ goals
43%
Moca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)
41%
Moca (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad O&M at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Moca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad O&M attack 1.33 + Moca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Moca attack 1.00 + Universidad O&M defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universidad O&M scores more
30%
level
26%
Moca scores more
44%

Moca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Moca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad O&M vs Moca

Universidad O&M and Moca drew 0-0 in Liga Mayor on February 7, 2026.