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Universidad O&M vs Jarabacoa — Liga Mayor 2020

Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jarabacoa
Jarabacoa
D. Jamesley 55'
J. Baez 8'
J. Rosa 21'
5/6/2023Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 4Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Universidad O&M43%
×Draw27%
Jarabacoa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad O&M
1.34
Jarabacoa
1.07

Universidad O&M creates 25% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

creates per match

Universidad O&M
1.23
Jarabacoa
0.90

allows per match

Universidad O&M
1.24
Jarabacoa
1.46

finishing

Universidad O&M+0.00on par
Jarabacoa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad O&M ↓

Jarabacoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universidad O&M or draw
70%
Universidad O&M or Jarabacoa
73%
Draw or Jarabacoa
57%

Winning margin

Universidad O&M wins by 2+
20%
Jarabacoa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Universidad O&M 1+ goals
74%
Universidad O&M 2+ goals
39%
Universidad O&M 3+ goals
15%
Jarabacoa 1+ goals
66%
Jarabacoa 2+ goals
29%
Jarabacoa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)
59%
Jarabacoa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad O&M at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.24 · 78 matches

Jarabacoa away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad O&M attack 1.23 + Jarabacoa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jarabacoa attack 0.90 + Universidad O&M defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Universidad O&M scores more
43%
level
27%
Jarabacoa scores more
30%

Universidad O&M at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universidad O&M will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. Baez
21'
J. Rosa
55'
D. Jamesley
72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad O&M vs Jarabacoa

Universidad O&M beat Jarabacoa 2-1 in Liga Mayor on May 6, 2023.

Goals: J. Baez (8'), J. Rosa (21'), D. Jamesley (55').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez in Santo Domingo.