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Universidad O&M vs Atlético de SF — Liga Mayor 2020

Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M
FT
4 – 0
Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
6/13/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 10Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Universidad O&M61%
×Draw21%
Atlético de SF17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad O&M
2.00
Atlético de SF
0.96

Universidad O&M creates 108% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 9 away

creates per match

Universidad O&M
1.23
Atlético de SF
0.67

allows per match

Universidad O&M
1.24
Atlético de SF
2.78

finishing

Universidad O&M+0.00on par
Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad O&M ↓

Atlético de SF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Universidad O&M or draw
83%
Universidad O&M or Atlético de SF
79%
Draw or Atlético de SF
39%

Winning margin

Universidad O&M wins by 2+
37%
Atlético de SF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universidad O&M 1+ goals
86%
Universidad O&M 2+ goals
59%
Universidad O&M 3+ goals
32%
Atlético de SF 1+ goals
62%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
25%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad O&M at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.24 · 78 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad O&M attack 1.23 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + Universidad O&M defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Universidad O&M scores more
61%
level
21%
Atlético de SF scores more
17%

Universidad O&M at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Universidad O&M will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad O&M vs Atlético de SF

Universidad O&M beat Atlético de SF 4-0 in Liga Mayor on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez in Santo Domingo.