Universidad de Concepcion 1–1 D. Melipilla

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

D. Melipilla

7/5/2022

Primera B · Round 18Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion45%

×Draw27%

D. Melipilla28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Universidad de Concepcion

1.42

D. Melipilla

1.07

Universidad de Concepcion creates 33% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 52 away

1.42

creates per match

1.04

1.10

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.42

D. Melipilla

1.04

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.10

D. Melipilla

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

72%

Universidad de Concepcion or D. Melipilla

73%

Draw or D. Melipilla

55%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

22%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

76%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

41%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

17%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

66%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

29%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

61%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.42 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

45%

level

27%

D. Melipilla scores more

28%

Universidad de Concepcion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff