Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 Concepción

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Concepción

C. Waterman 71'

C. Mesias 50'

J. Larrivey 22' (pen)

2/15/2026

Primera División · Round 3Estadio Ester Roa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion48%

×Draw28%

Concepción24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.88

Universidad de Concepcion

1.35

Concepción

0.88

Universidad de Concepcion creates 53% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 8 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

1.12

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.21

Concepción

0.63

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.12

Concepción

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

76%

Universidad de Concepcion or Concepción

72%

Draw or Concepción

52%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

23%

Concepción wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

74%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

39%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

15%

Concepción 1+ goals

59%

Concepción 2+ goals

22%

Concepción 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

66%

Concepción (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Concepción away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.21 + Concepción defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Concepción attack 0.63 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

48%

level

28%

Concepción scores more

24%

Universidad de Concepcion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Cesar

Concepción · G

8.3

Match Events

-5'

7'

11'

18'

20'

Aldrix JaraPenalty confirmed

22'

J. LarriveyPenalty

30'

Agustín Urzi

46'

Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez← A. Diaz

50'

C. Mesias↳ Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez

60'

L. Romero← A. Jara

63'

Fausto Grillo

68'

A. Uribe← A. Urzi

71'

C. Waterman↳ P. Parra

73'

B. Vejar← J. Rojas

73'

M. Cavalleri← E. Espinoza

73'

A. Gillard← L. Valencia Rossel

76'

David Retamal

79'

J. Espejo← P. Parra

87'

C. Escobar← M. Sandoval

90+4'

David Retamal

90+8'

Joaquín Larrivey

90+8'

Joaquín LarriveyCard upgrade

90'

M. Gonzalez← J. Fuentealba

90'

H. Salgado← C. Waterman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadConcepción

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots7

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.47

5Corners3

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots7

9On Target1

1Off Target3

3Blocked3

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

339Total Passes351

275Accurate Passes289

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

3Offsides1