Universidad de Chile 1–2 Palestino: Result & Stats

Universidad de Chile

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Palestino

M. G. Guerrero Pena 90'

I. A. Garguez Gomez 90'

N. Da Silva 85'

3/5/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad de Chile59%

×Draw22%

Palestino19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchPalestino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.95

Universidad de Chile

1.88

Palestino

0.95

Universidad de Chile creates 98% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

2.20

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

2.20

Palestino

0.89

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.00

Palestino

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Palestino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

81%

Universidad de Chile or Palestino

78%

Draw or Palestino

41%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

35%

Palestino wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

85%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

56%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

29%

Palestino 1+ goals

61%

Palestino 2+ goals

25%

Palestino 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

76%

Palestino (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 2.20 + Palestino defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Palestino attack 0.89 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

59%

level

22%

Palestino scores more

19%

Universidad de Chile at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Munder

Palestino · F

7.7

Match Events

17'

M. G. Guerrero Pena← J. Lucero

56'

C. Munder← J. Benitez

62'

N. Fernandez← F. Hormazabal

62'

F. Salomoni← M. Morales

70'

B. Carrasco← M. Araya

70'

N. Meza← F. T. Montes Romero

83'

M. Diaz← B. Tamayo

85'

N. Da Silva↳ C. Munder

88'

Dilan Zúñiga

90+2'

Bryan Carrasco

90+2'

A. A. Ceza Gavilan← S. Gallegos

90'

M. G. Guerrero Pena↳ M. Diaz

90'

I. A. Garguez Gomez↳ C. Munder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadPalestino

Overview

66%Possession34%

12Total Shots13

0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.05

7Corners5

7Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots13

2On Target2

3Off Target6

7Blocked5

7Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

493Total Passes247

408Accurate Passes168

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.24Goals Prevented-0.24

Discipline

7Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad de Chile 1–2 Palestino

Palestino beat Universidad de Chile 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 5, 2026.

Goals: N. Da Silva (85'), M. G. Guerrero Pena (90'), I. A. Garguez Gomez (90').

Universidad de Chile controlled possession (66%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Santiago de Chile.

Universidad de Chile vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad de Chile 1–2 Palestino