Universidad de Chile 3–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

Universidad de Chile

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nublense

12/9/2023

Primera División · Round 30Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Universidad de Chile46%

×Draw26%

Nublense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Universidad de Chile

1.45

Nublense

1.07

Universidad de Chile creates 36% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 83 away

1.57

creates per match

1.13

1.01

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

Nublense

1.13

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.01

Nublense

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

72%

Universidad de Chile or Nublense

74%

Draw or Nublense

54%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

22%

Nublense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

77%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

42%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

18%

Nublense 1+ goals

66%

Nublense 2+ goals

29%

Nublense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

62%

Nublense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + Nublense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nublense attack 1.13 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

46%

level

26%

Nublense scores more

28%

Universidad de Chile at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense

Universidad de Chile beat Nublense 3-1 in Primera División on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.

Universidad de Chile vs Nublense — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense