Nublense 1–0 Universidad de Chile: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Chile

4/12/2026

Primera División · Round 9Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nublense42%

×Draw26%

Universidad de Chile31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.18

Nublense

1.42

Universidad de Chile

1.18

Nublense creates 20% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 128 away

1.46

creates per match

1.27

1.08

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Nublense

1.46

Universidad de Chile

1.27

allows per match

Nublense

1.08

Universidad de Chile

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

69%

Nublense or Universidad de Chile

74%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

58%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

20%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

76%

Nublense 2+ goals

41%

Nublense 3+ goals

17%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

69%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

33%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

58%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.46 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Universidad de Chile attack 1.27 + Nublense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nublense scores more

42%

level

26%

Universidad de Chile scores more

31%

Nublense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Nublense 1–0 Universidad de Chile

Nublense beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 in Primera División on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas in Chillan.

Nublense vs Universidad de Chile — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División: Nublense 1–0 Universidad de Chile