Universidad de Chile 2–0 D. Melipilla

Universidad de Chile

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

D. Melipilla

7/21/2021

Primera División · Round 11Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Universidad de Chile54%

×Draw24%

D. Melipilla22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.00

Universidad de Chile

1.73

D. Melipilla

1.00

Universidad de Chile creates 73% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 16 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.01

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

D. Melipilla

1.00

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

1.01

D. Melipilla

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

78%

Universidad de Chile or D. Melipilla

76%

Draw or D. Melipilla

46%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

30%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

82%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

52%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

25%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

63%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

26%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

71%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

54%

level

24%

D. Melipilla scores more

22%

Universidad de Chile at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff