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Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
4/20/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 9Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Universidad Catolica56%
×Draw24%
Orense SC19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.67
Orense SC
0.86

Universidad Catolica creates 94% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 104 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
Orense SC
0.69

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
Orense SC
1.43

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
81%
Universidad Catolica or Orense SC
76%
Draw or Orense SC
44%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
31%
Orense SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
81%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
50%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
23%
Orense SC 1+ goals
58%
Orense SC 2+ goals
21%
Orense SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
75%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Orense SC attack 0.69 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
56%
level
24%
Orense SC scores more
19%

Universidad Catolica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Universidad Catolica 2–0 Orense SC

Universidad Catolica beat Orense SC 2-0 in Liga Pro on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.