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Universidad Catolica vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
8/31/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Universidad Catolica58%
×Draw22%
Mushuc Runa SC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.88
Mushuc Runa SC
0.99

Universidad Catolica creates 90% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 117 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
Mushuc Runa SC
0.95

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
Mushuc Runa SC
1.83

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
80%
Universidad Catolica or Mushuc Runa SC
78%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
42%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
34%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
85%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
56%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
29%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
63%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
26%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
75%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
58%
level
22%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
20%

Universidad Catolica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Mushuc Runa SC

Universidad Catolica beat Mushuc Runa SC 5-1 in Liga Pro on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.