Universidad Catolica 2–1 Mushuc Runa SC

Universidad Catolica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mushuc Runa SC

Arón Rodríguez 70', 8'

B. Delgado 37'

7/9/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 1Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica62%

×Draw23%

Mushuc Runa SC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.73

Universidad Catolica

1.75

Mushuc Runa SC

0.73

Universidad Catolica creates 140% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.22

creates per match

0.85

0.62

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

2.22

Mushuc Runa SC

0.85

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.62

Mushuc Runa SC

1.28

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

+1.15scores more than expected

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.64scores more

Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

85%

Universidad Catolica or Mushuc Runa SC

77%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

38%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

35%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

83%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

52%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

25%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

52%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

17%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

80%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.62 · 7 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 2.22 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.75

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

62%

level

23%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

15%

Universidad Catolica at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Arón Rodríguez↳ K. Minda

18'

L. Alzugaray

29'

K. Minda

30'

J. Uchuari

37'

B. Delgado↳ J. Uchuari

44'

J. Estacio

46'

B. Caicedo← Y. Mosquera

53'

60'

70'

70'

70'

76'

W. Chalá← Arón Rodríguez

76'

W. Ayoví← J. Uchuari

79'

E. Velasco← B. Delgado

82'

W. Cevallos← C. Martínez

89'

R. Zambrano← J. Monaga

89'

A. Colombino← J. Estacio

Shots

Statistics

UniversidadMushuc

Overview

5Total Shots4

7Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots4

2On Target4

3Off Target0

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3