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Universidad Catolica vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Macara
Macara
4/1/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 6Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universidad Catolica59%
×Draw23%
Macara18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.76
Macara
0.86

Universidad Catolica creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
2.22
Macara
1.10

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.62
Macara
1.30

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.64scores more
Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
82%
Universidad Catolica or Macara
77%
Draw or Macara
41%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
33%
Macara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
83%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
52%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
26%
Macara 1+ goals
58%
Macara 2+ goals
21%
Macara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
76%
Macara (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.62 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 2.22 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.76

Macara attack 1.10 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
59%
level
23%
Macara scores more
18%

Universidad Catolica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Macara

Universidad Catolica and Macara drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on April 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.