Macara 1–2 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Universidad Catolica

11/30/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 15Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara37%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Macara

1.24

Universidad Catolica

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 132 away

1.24

creates per match

1.42

1.03

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Macara

1.24

Universidad Catolica

1.42

allows per match

Macara

1.03

Universidad Catolica

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Macara or draw

64%

Macara or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

63%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

71%

Macara 2+ goals

35%

Macara 3+ goals

13%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

71%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

35%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

50%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Macara scores more

37%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

36%

Macara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff