Universidad Catolica vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Universidad Catolica61%
Emelec17%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universidad Catolica creates 115% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universidad Catolica ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches
Emelec away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universidad Catolica attack 2.12 + Emelec defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.89
Emelec attack 1.04 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Universidad Catolica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
Macara
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
Guayaquil City FCUniversidad CatolicaEmelec
LDU de Quito
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Universidad Catolica host Emelec on Sunday, 4 October 2020 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Universidad Catolica 4–1 Emelec
Universidad Catolica beat Emelec 4-1 in Liga Pro on October 4, 2020.
Goals: B. Vides (5', 12'), J. Carabalí (22'), E. Pernía (82'), N. Bazán (90+3' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.