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Emelec vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
2/16/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 1Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Emelec42%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.35
Universidad Catolica
1.12

Emelec creates 21% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 132 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Universidad Catolica
1.42

allows per match

Emelec
0.82
Universidad Catolica
1.24

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
69%
Emelec or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
58%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
19%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
74%
Emelec 2+ goals
39%
Emelec 3+ goals
15%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
67%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
31%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
58%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Emelec scores more
42%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
31%

Emelec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Emelec 0–4 Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Emelec 4-0 in Liga Pro on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.