Universidad Catolica 0–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Universidad Catolica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colo Colo

Esteban Paredes 17'

4/3/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundOlimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universidad Catolica72%

×Draw17%

Colo Colo11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad CatolicaExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.80

Universidad Catolica

2.37

Colo Colo

0.80

Universidad Catolica creates 196% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Universidad Catolica

1.73

Colo Colo

1.00

allows per match

Universidad Catolica

0.60

Colo Colo

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw

89%

Universidad Catolica or Colo Colo

83%

Draw or Colo Colo

28%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

49%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

91%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

68%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

42%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

55%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

19%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

87%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Colo Colo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.37

Colo Colo attack 1.00 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more

72%

level

17%

Colo Colo scores more

11%

Universidad Catolica at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jorge Valdivia

Colo Colo · F

8.4

Match Events

17'

Esteban Paredes↳ Jorge Valdivia

45'

45'

51'

58'

61'

72'

Juan Manuel Insaurralde← Gabriel Costa

74'

Bryan Oña← Walter Chalá

81'

Williams Alarcón← Jorge Valdivia

85'

Matías Rodríguez← Matías Rodríguez

88'

Javier Parraguez← Esteban Paredes

90'

Brayan Cortés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadColo

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots10

13Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots10

3On Target4

14Off Target5

2Blocked1

8Inside Box5

11Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

459Total Passes329

399Accurate Passes254

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Universidad Catolica 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 3, 2019.

Goals: Esteban Paredes (17').

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Universidad Catolica vs Colo Colo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Colo Colo