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Universidad Catolica vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro 2018

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
9/5/2020Liga ProLiga Pro · 1° Turno - 11Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Universidad Catolica61%
×Draw20%
CD Olmedo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
2.13
CD Olmedo
1.08

Universidad Catolica creates 97% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 45 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.92
CD Olmedo
1.13

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
1.03
CD Olmedo
2.33

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
82%
Universidad Catolica or CD Olmedo
80%
Draw or CD Olmedo
39%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
38%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
88%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
63%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
35%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
66%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
29%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
77%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.92 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
61%
level
20%
CD Olmedo scores more
18%

Universidad Catolica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs CD Olmedo

Universidad Catolica beat CD Olmedo 3-1 in Liga Pro on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.