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Universidad Catolica vs Alianza Valledupar — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
5/17/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universidad Catolica46%
×Draw27%
Alianza Valledupar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.36
Alianza Valledupar
0.97

Universidad Catolica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.73
Alianza Valledupar
1.33

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.60
Alianza Valledupar
1.00

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
73%
Universidad Catolica or Alianza Valledupar
73%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
54%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
22%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
74%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
39%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
62%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
25%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
63%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.33 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
46%
level
27%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
27%

Universidad Catolica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Universidad Catolica 0–0 Alianza Valledupar

Universidad Catolica and Alianza Valledupar drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.