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Universidad Catolica vs Alianza Lima — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Limaadvanced
8/21/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universidad Catolica50%
×Draw26%
Alianza Lima24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.53
Alianza Lima
0.97

Universidad Catolica creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
1.73
Alianza Lima
1.33

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.60
Alianza Lima
1.33

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
76%
Universidad Catolica or Alianza Lima
74%
Draw or Alianza Lima
50%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
26%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
78%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
45%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
20%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
62%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
25%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
68%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 1.73 + Alianza Lima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Alianza Lima attack 1.33 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
50%
level
26%
Alianza Lima scores more
24%

Universidad Catolica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Universidad Catolica 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.