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United vs RCA — Division di Honor 2019

United
United
FT
0 – 2
RCA
RCA
9/22/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 1Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

United5%
×Draw8%
RCA87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United
0.90
RCA
3.92

RCA creates 336% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 68 away

creates per match

United
0.83
RCA
2.50

allows per match

United
5.33
RCA
0.96

finishing

United+0.00on par
RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United ↓

RCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–39%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

United or draw
13%
United or RCA
92%
Draw or RCA
95%

Winning margin

United wins by 2+
1%
RCA wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

United 1+ goals
59%
United 2+ goals
23%
United 3+ goals
6%
RCA 1+ goals
98%
RCA 2+ goals
89%
RCA 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

United (draw refunded)
5%
RCA (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 5.33 · 6 matches

RCA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.96 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United attack 0.83 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

RCA attack 2.50 + United defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

United scores more
5%
level
8%
RCA scores more
87%

RCA at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: United vs RCA

RCA beat United 2-0 in Division di Honor on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.