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United vs Caravel — Division di Honor 2019

United
United
FT
0 – 5
Caravel
Caravel
11/3/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 6Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

United17%
×Draw15%
Caravel68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United
1.74
Caravel
3.45

Caravel creates 98% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

United
0.83
Caravel
1.57

allows per match

United
5.33
Caravel
2.64

finishing

United+0.00on par
Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United ↓

Caravel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

United or draw
32%
United or Caravel
85%
Draw or Caravel
83%

Winning margin

United wins by 2+
7%
Caravel wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

United 1+ goals
82%
United 2+ goals
52%
United 3+ goals
25%
Caravel 1+ goals
97%
Caravel 2+ goals
85%
Caravel 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

United (draw refunded)
20%
Caravel (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 5.33 · 6 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United attack 0.83 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Caravel attack 1.57 + United defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

United scores more
17%
level
15%
Caravel scores more
68%

Caravel at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Caravel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: United vs Caravel

Caravel beat United 5-0 in Division di Honor on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.