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United vs Bubali — Division di Honor 2019

United
United
FT
3 – 7
Bubali
Bubali
10/28/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 5Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

United20%
×Draw15%
Bubali64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

United
2.03
Bubali
3.55

Bubali creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

creates per match

United
0.83
Bubali
1.77

allows per match

United
5.33
Bubali
3.23

finishing

United+0.00on par
Bubali+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

United ↓

Bubali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

United or draw
36%
United or Bubali
85%
Draw or Bubali
80%

Winning margin

United wins by 2+
10%
Bubali wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

United 1+ goals
87%
United 2+ goals
60%
United 3+ goals
33%
Bubali 1+ goals
97%
Bubali 2+ goals
86%
Bubali 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

United (draw refunded)
24%
Bubali (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 5.33 · 6 matches

Bubali away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

United attack 0.83 + Bubali defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.03

Bubali attack 1.77 + United defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

United scores more
20%
level
15%
Bubali scores more
64%

Bubali at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bubali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: United vs Bubali

Bubali beat United 7-3 in Division di Honor on October 28, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.